The market thinking and in October the industry configuration why the economy seems good but weak ma-pork face

The market thinking and in October the industry configuration: why the economy seems good but weak market Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money from the Thailand securities monthly view review: 5 and June monthly respectively is "red May", "June, return of growth shocks really, focus on growth and" hard "theme" we emphasize the structural market, light weight stock index, Mancang growth. The market is expected in July agreed to eat the market, but we believe that the July index of temporary lack of upward driving force, then the probability of digging market greatly, the best strategy is to rallies to lighten up, looking for a better buy. In August, the center down, opportunities or in the first half of 8 months, the market concussion, second week index continues to bottom, small opportunities or in late August. September September "capital gap," the lack of market driven watershed rise, when the capital stock of the game was in front of goal, high index game, and Shanghai increased risk, September might be the index of the watershed, the market shocks down the probability of a larger time point in early September after the festival. Market view in October. Even though China’s economic cycle has weakened over the past 12 years, even the capital market bull market and the economic cycle have reversed in 2014. But there is no doubt that the anchor of the impact of the economic cycle on the capital market is still in place. From the macro cycle of currency, production, price, profit and inventory cycle conduction path, now has come to the price and profit interval. The currency began to converge in June, fiscal convergence in July, and the price and profit by monetary easing after the effect of 1-2 a quarter of the price and the profit is going to boom. By the expected policy effect of relaxation continuity and part of the industry supply side reform steady growth of commodity prices, many people are still obsessed with the economy may continue to improve vision, especially in the current economic boom seems to be more and more high, but the stock market index has to shock? In fact, the capital market has gone through the highest profits expected to improve. With the tightening of the real estate market policy, the weakening of the economy in the next 1-2 quarters is a high probability event. Market trends are still waiting to wait until the market again expects a significant relaxation of monetary policy or a few key indicators of bottoming out. 10-11 in the bond market may be a better configuration of nodes, and the stock market index bottomed out may be another 1 months or so, before this, structural opportunities and stage a rebound, the market trend is difficult to have a chance. The choice of asset allocation, bonds, gold, stocks, commodities, or the choice of asset allocation compass. Obviously, if the economic cycle in class as we say overheating stage of the economic cycle, asset allocation categories should be compass, pointing to the next bond. The 10-11 month should be the better observation node for configuring bonds. For stocks, bonds or similar regardless of blue chip trend, similar to the cycle of capital goods, the allocation of time node later than bonds, at least 1-2 months before bottoming out bond lag is the stock market allocation theory

市场思考及10月份行业配置:为什么经济好像不错但市场羸弱 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新股申购:股市最简单捡钱方式   文章来源:中泰证券   月度观点回顾:5、6 月份我们的月报分别是《红五月,成长归来》、《六月震荡,关注真成长与“硬”主题》我们强调结构性行情,重个股轻指数,满仓成长。市场一致预期七月份是吃饭行情,但我们认为7月份指数暂时缺乏上行驱动力,市场挖坑再上的概率极大,最佳策略是逢高减仓,寻找更好的买点。8月《中枢下移,机会或在8 月下半月》第一周市场震荡,第二周指数继续探底,小机会或在8 月份中下旬。   9 月份《资金青黄不接,九月分水岭》市场缺乏上升驱动力,目当前场存量资金博弈明显,指数高位博弈,加上海外风险增加,九月份有可能是指数的分水岭,市场震荡向下的概率较大,时间节点在9 月上旬之后。   十月份市场观点。尽管12 年以来中国经济周期趋势变弱,甚至2014 年资本市场牛市与经济周期走势反向。但不容置疑的是,经济周期对资本市场的影响的锚依旧在。从宏观周期的货币、生产、价格、利润与库存的周期传导路径来看,目前已经走到价格与利润的区间。   货币在6 月份开始收敛,财政收敛在7 月份,而价格与利润受到货币放松之后1-2 个季度的影响,价格与利润正走向景气。受到期望政策放松稳增长的延续性与部分行业供给侧改革对大宗商品价格的影响,很多人依旧痴迷在经济可能继续向好的幻象里,尤其是当前经济好像景气度越来越高,但股票市场指数却震荡向下?其实资本市场已经走过利润改善预期的最高点。   随着房地产市场的政策的收紧,经济在未来1-2 个季度环比走弱是大概率的事件。市场触底回升的趋势性机会仍需等待,等到市场再次预期货币政策的大幅放松或者触底的几个关键指标闪现。10-11月份可能是债券市场较好的配置节点,而股票市场指数见底或许要再延后1 个月左右,在这之前,结构性机会与阶段性反弹为主,市场难有趋势性机会。   大类资产配置的选择,债券―黄金―股票―商品或是资产配置罗盘里的先后选择。很显然,如果经济周期处在如我们所说经济周期的类过热阶段,大类资产配置的罗盘里,下一个指向的应该是债券。10-11 月份应该是较好的配置债券的观察节点。对于股票来说,不管蓝筹走势类似债券,还是类似周期资本品,其配置时间节点要晚于债券,起码滞后债券见底1-2 个月才是股票市场配置的观察时间点。黄金的配置价值在四季度会陡升,最大的逻辑是中国居民部门加杠杆推升的全球流动性偏好重新进入收敛阶段,没有需求回升的流动性拐点,都是对当前流动性的欲求不满。这意味着中国需求回落,全球风险偏好的回落将在外生冲击下放大,日欧负利率对金融体系的影响将推升黄金的避险价值。目前黄金价格的回落只不过是在利率影响下的通胀预期消退后的重新定价。   行业配置思路:关注“两头”,并向上头倾斜。一头是绝对估值低的,诸如金融、煤炭等低估值、低市盈率蓝筹,目前可以防守,但等到四季可以跟随预期进攻;另外一头,是进攻性的真成长与自下而上有公司“背书”的标的,在市场调整到相对安全的时候逢低配置。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: