High market divergence, high debt volatility-webquest

The differences between the larger market debt shocks – reporter Wang Hui in the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the market profit taking pressure to reduce the background of treasury stock and futures market Thursday, moderate rise, the continuation of the operation pattern of high office recently. Analysts pointed out that, after the commercial bank outsourcing investment tightening rumors were clarified, the market cautious attitude has improved, is expected after the holiday market will continue to focus on monetary policy expectations, new debt supply pressure and other factors continue to battle the game. The debt is modestly higher on Thursday the central bank open market to keep the inverse repurchase operation of more than one hundred billion yuan, promote market funds continue to remain stable, the bond market was relatively warm. The debt market, the debt of two varieties of the main contract all day long Dikaigaozou, closing both recorded a slight rise. As of Thursday’s close, the 5 year bond futures contract TF1603 at 100.735 yuan, up 0.135 yuan or 0.13%; TF1606 June contract closed at 100.36 yuan, up 0.07 yuan or 0.07%. On Thursday the 10 year bond futures contract in June T1606 holdings of more than T1603, to become the new main contract. T1606 Thursday to close at 99.535 yuan, up 0.45 yuan or 0.15% positions increased 1162 to 20621 hand in hand. Traders said Thursday the central bank to carry out 150 billion yuan repurchase operation, single day net invested 70 billion yuan of funds. The central bank continued to put liquidity boosting, the inter-bank market funds face is still abundant, the repo rate remained stable. At the same time, the commercial banks to tighten outsourcing rumors are part of the media after clarification, the bond market sentiment is slightly warmer. Overnight dollar index, both U.S. bond yields fell sharply, but also to stabilize the market confidence in the domestic bond market to a certain extent. Although the possibility is still large differences before the Spring Festival bond market volatility has decreased significantly, but the market for the holiday parties interest rate trends but still there exist obvious differences. From the central bank policy easing stance, local debt supply pressure angle, Guoxin Securities, Haitong Securities Agency analysts believe that after the new debt supply will be a substantial expansion, short-term supply and demand may be tightening. But since January the same period of CDB bonds and bond spreads continued to narrow the performance point of view, the market stage is expected to do more enthusiasm and optimism may have been fully released. Keep optimistic Guotai Junan pointed out, the central bank policy is expected to disturbance, does not change the fundamental evolution trend, and the policy will eventually return to the changes of the economic fundamentals. The recent interest rate level of the world’s major economies are closer to a record low, in this context, the domestic interest rate level deviation will not be too long. In the specific period of the debt investment strategy, GF futures, Shanghai million futures agency said that the recent global bond yields fell sharply, is expected to bring short-term rebound in energy bonds. While the slowdown in revenue, wide fiscal space is limited, after the central bank still needs more monetary easing, stable economic growth. The specific operation, suggest that short positions remain on the sidelines, continue to hold more than one. theory

市场分歧较大 期债高位震荡    □本报记者 王辉    在春节长假日益临近、市场获利了结压力减轻的背景下,周四国债现货及期货市场温和走升,延续了近期高位盘整的运行格局。分析人士指出,此前有关商业银行委外投资收紧的传闻得到部分澄清,市场谨慎心态有所改善,预计节后市场仍将围绕货币政策预期、新债供给压力等因素继续展开多空博弈。    期债温和走高    周四央行公开市场保持了千亿元以上的逆回购操作,推动市场资金面继续保持稳定,债券市场交投相对偏暖。期债市场上,期债两品种主力合约全天低开高走,收盘时双双录得小幅上涨。    截至周四收盘,5年期国债期货TF1603合约报100.735元,上涨0.135元或0.13%;6月合约TF1606收报100.36元,上涨0.07元或0.07%。周四10年期国债期货6月合约T1606持仓量也超过T1603,成为新的主力合约。T1606周四收报99.535元,涨0.45元或0.15%,持仓大幅增加1162手至20621手。    交易员表示,周四央行开展1500亿元逆回购操作,单日净投放资金700亿元。在央行持续投放流动性助力下,银行间市场资金面依旧充裕,回购利率基本保持稳定。同时,商业银行委外收紧传闻被部分媒体澄清后,债市情绪略有回暖。隔夜美元指数、美债收益率双双大幅下挫,也在一定程度上稳定了市场对于国内债市的信心。    分歧仍然较大    虽然春节前债券市场大幅波动的可能性已明显下降,但市场各方对于节后利率走向却依旧存在较明显的分歧。    从央行政策宽松立场、地方债供给压力等角度,国信证券、海通证券等机构分析认为,节后新债供给将大幅扩容,短期供需关系可能有所收紧。而从1月以来同期限国开债与国债的利差持续收窄的表现来看,市场阶段性做多热情和乐观预期则可能已有充分释放。继续看好后市的国泰君安则指出,前期央行政策预期的扰动,并不会改变基本面演化趋势,而且政策最终也要回归到经济基本面变化上来。近期全球主要经济体利率水平均在向创纪录低位迈进,在这样的背景下,国内利率水平的背离不会太久。    在期债的具体投资策略方面,广发期货、申万期货等机构表示,近期全球国债收益率大幅下跌,预计将期债带来短期反弹动能。而在财政收入增速放缓、宽财政空间有限的情况下,节后央行仍需加大货币宽松力度,稳定经济增长。具体操作上,建议空仓者保持观望,多单继续持有。银河期货等机构周四则继续发表观点认为,2月份上半月市场不确定性较多,继续建议投资者在2月上半月市场趋势明朗之前,仅保留少量多单底仓。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: