Great reversal! The 18 month bull market is coming to an end-乃々果花

Great reversal! The 18 month bull market is coming to an end? Hot column capital flows thousands of thousand comment stocks diagnosis the latest rating simulated trading client over the past 18 months, because the interest rate differences, the dollar has been the darling of foreign exchange traders. But this week, there’s an obvious reversal. This week, the dollar index continued downward. The dollar tumbled 2% on a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, the biggest decline in seven years. The dollar index continued to go down by about 0.7% on Thursday, reaching its lowest level since October, testing the 200 day moving average. U.S. January ISM non manufacturing PMI data poor performance, and the Fed’s number three man Dudley (William Dudley) said the financial environment has been lower than in December last year to raise interest rates sharply tightening, are pushing the dollar day plunge. Dudley’s speech prompted Goldman Sachs to postpone the Fed’s interest rate hike this year to June of this year. According to Thursday’s federal funds rate futures, the market believes that the Fed meeting in March announced the probability of interest rate is only 10%, the probability of interest rate hike before the end of 41%. In 2016, the foreign exchange market was volatile, and the dollar rose against a variety of currencies. This is mainly due to the larger fluctuations in the exchange rate of other major currencies. The Bank of Japan launched a negative interest rate measures to weaken the yen, the pound fell to the UK economy, oil prices and other commodity prices continued to decline in commodity currencies. The dollar continued to gain momentum due to the Fed’s interest rate hike in mid December. "The market clearly tended to do more dollars in almost all currencies in 2016. But now, it’s a real challenge." Shahab Jalinoos, head of global exchange strategy at Credit Suisse in New York, says so to CNBC. Speculators have been cutting back dollar positions in recent weeks. CFTC data showed that as of January 26th, the dollar was down to $23 billion 850 million, reducing for fifth consecutive weeks. Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in a research report released recently, based on higher economic growth, higher interest rates and the dollar expectations of further appreciation on the basis of financial transactions are released, the dollar will no longer momentum. He suggested that the world’s major central banks work together to intervene in the currency markets and sign a new agreement similar to the 1985 Plaza Accord. US dollar positions were liquidated before Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, giving the pound, the Australian dollar, the NZD and the Canadian dollar varying degrees of support. If this trend continues, then it will affect other markets. The dollar continued to drop, so that devaluation pressure significantly reduced. RMB against the U.S. dollar for two consecutive days up, Friday reported 6.5314, continued to hit a new high in January 6th. Between January 18th and February 3rd, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar has been steadily on the 6.55 line, a period of six consecutive days up. Offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rose nearly 500 points in North American trading on Thursday. Investors wait for the January US non farm payrolls report to be released on 5. Bloomberg on analysts

大逆转!美元18个月牛市即将终结? 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端   过去18个月,由于利率差异的存在,美元一直是外汇交易员们的宠儿。但本周,这种交易出现了明显的逆转态势。   本周,美元指数持续下行。美元兑一篮子主要货币周三暴跌2%,跌幅创七年最大。美元指数周四持续走低约0.7%,至去年10月以来新低,测试200日均线。   美国1月ISM非制造业PMI数据表现不佳,及美联储三号人物杜德利(William Dudley)称金融环境已较去年12月加息时大幅收紧,均推动当日美元暴跌。杜德利的发言令高盛将美联储今年加息时点推迟至今年6月。   根据周四的美国联邦基金利率期货,市场认为美联储在3月会议上宣布加息的概率仅为10%,年底前加息的概率为41%。   2016年外汇市场大幅动荡,美元兑多种货币出现升值。这主要是由于其他主要货币汇率变动较大。日本央行推出负利率举措压低日元,英国经济状况令英镑下跌,油价等大宗商品价格持续下挫导致商品货币走低。而美元则因去年12月中旬的美联储加息而持续强势。   “市场在2016年明显倾向于做多美元对几乎所有货币。但现在,这种观点遇到了真正的挑战。”瑞信驻纽约全球外汇策略负责人Shahab Jalinoos对CNBC如此表示。   投机者最近几周已经在削减美元多头仓位。CFTC数据显示,截止1月26日当周,美元净多头头寸降至238.5亿美元,为连续第五周缩减。   美银美林首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在近日公布的研报中也表示,建立在较高经济增速、较高利率和美元进一步升值预期基础之上的金融交易正在解除,美元升值势头终将不再。他建议全球主要央行共同合作干预汇市,签署类似于1985年广场协议式(Plaza Accord)的新协议。   美元多头头寸在周五美国非农就业报告公布之前平仓,这给了英镑、澳元、纽元及加元不同程度的支撑。如果这种趋势继续,那么其将影响其他市场。   美元持续大跌令人民币贬值压力大幅减轻。人民币兑美元中间价连续两日上调,周五报6.5314,续创1月6日来新高。1月18日至2月3日期间,人民币对美元中间价一直稳定在6.55一线,期间一度连续六天上调。离岸人民币兑美元汇率周四北美交易时段暴涨近500点。   投资者等待将于5日公布的美国1月份非农就业报告。彭博社对分析师展开的预期调查显示,市场普遍预计1月非农就业人口将增加19万人,前值为增加29.2万人;1月失业率持平于5%。   美联储下次议息会议声明公布时间为3月17日。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius则在近日发布的报告中称,继去年12月首次加息后,联储将在今年6月宣布第二次、也是今年首次加息,今年将总共加息三次。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: